September 12, 2011

Banks will be negatively affected by money fleeing the equity markets, Invictus says.

Money flowing out of volatile, down trending equity markets portends major changes for banks as investors seek refuge in federally insured deposits, according to Invictus Consulting Group LLC, which provides stress test analyses for banks.

According to FDIC data, over the past year, more than $1 trillion has moved into bank deposits despite historically low interest rates. “This is a clear indication of a shift to safety and preservation of wealth at the expense of new spending," says Todd DellaCamera, a Managing Director at Invictus.
(read more...)

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August 30, 2011

Invictus Launches Bank Stress Test Service for Hedge Funds

Invictus Consulting Group, LLC today announced a new service to help hedge funds access hard to obtain forward-looking bank stress test information in order to determine whether a bank stock is over, under or fairly valued in relation to its peers.

“Hedge funds rely on complex algorithms that, in turn, depend on public data to value their bank stock holdings. The problem, we have found, is that the source data for these algorithms, particularly the key ones of capital and earnings, are incorrect as generally presented and must be adjusted on a correct and consistent basis across all the banks to make the data useful. Our proprietary methodology provides the means to do this accurately, efficiently and quickly,” said Kamal Mustafa, Chairman and CEO of Invictus.
(read more...)

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August 12, 2011

Move to broaden stress tests poses different type of risk for Houston’s smaller banks

Stress tests typically performed on the country's largest banks may trickle down to smaller banks in Houston and around the country, a move some industry experts say could be a burden for financial institutions that have not budgeted for the extra regulatory scrutiny.

Industry regulators test loan portfolios of the largest 19 banks and run them through various scenarios, taking into account times of rising unemployment and economic decline to gauge the health of their risk management practices.
(read more...)

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July 27, 2011

Invictus Group Stress Test shows investors not focusing on Post Stress Capital,
mispricing ensues

• Report Says Use of Traditional Bank Analytics in Present Economic and Financial Environment without Advanced Stress Testing Approach Poses Pitfall for Investors
  

Despite concerns over stress testing levels, a new benchmark study of Tier 1 capital needs of U.S. publicly traded single bank holding companies over the next two years by the Invictus Group LLC, indicates that investors continue to fail to factor stress testing into their analysis thereby resulting in mispriced holdings.
(read more...)

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July 22, 2011

Data show Arizona banks in worse shape than US average

More than half of Arizona’s local and regional banks will become undercapitalized if exposed to continued economic stress, according to a report from New York-based Invictus Consulting Group LLC.

Arizona’s results were far worse than the national average. According to the study, released last week, Arizona has the highest rate of potentially undercapitalized banks in the nation: 19 of its 36 regional and community banks, or 53 percent, were shown to be undercapitalized after a stress test.
(read more...)

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July 18, 2011

What Hurts 46% of Washington Banks?

If Washington state banks were to undergo continued economic stress, nearly half of them wouldn't have enough capital to be considered healthy, according to a new study released by Invictus Group.

The results of the study, released last week, showed Washington has the ninth highest rate of undercapitalized banks in the country with 45.6 percent of its banks undercapitalized after a stress test. The tests, which mimic how banks' loan portfolios would fare under tough economic conditions, showed that high unemployment rates, a sluggish construction industry and a weak real estate market are hurting state banks the most.
(read more...)

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July 14, 2011

Study Says 25% of U.S. Banks are Undercapitalized

Twenty-five percent of all U.S. banks do not meet the minimum risk-based 8% Tier 1 capital requirement, according to a two-year stress test completed by financial risk management firm Invictus Group.

The result is a situation where the firm says one-fifth of U.S. banks would be undercapitalized on a post-stress test basis in times of emergency. The states of Arizona, Florida and Maryland have the most risk with more than 50% of banks at risk, Invictus said.
(read more...)

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July 13, 2011

New Ground-Breaking Bank Stress Test by Invictus Group Available Online for First Time

Invictus has taken stress testing to a new level, and what our model indicates, where the historical measures do not, is that far too many banks are not yet out of the woods. Serious challenges remain, especially given current high unemployment and the weak economy.
(read more...)

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July 13, 2011

Invictus Stress Test Results for U.S. Banks Now Available Online for U.S. States & Territories

In a press release issued today:

• New Ground-Breaking Bank Stress Test by Invictus Group Available On-Line for First Time
  
• State-by-State Data Shows More Than 25% of U.S. Community Banks Will Be Undercapitalized
  
• Economic Impact on Bank Lending Highlighted
  (read more...)

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July 13, 2011

The worst might not be over for Oregon banks.

On Wednesday, New York research firm The Invictus Group released the results of stress tests it performed on each of the nation's 1,983 banks.

Oregon ranked No. 11 for the highest percentage of undercapitalized banks. Oregon banks need to raise nearly $125 million in fresh capital to serve as a sufficient cushion against bad loans, according to Invictus.
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July 13, 2011

More than a quarter of Florida banks are undercapitalized, but New York research firm Invictus Group says that number could soar to more than 50 percent.

Invictus ran thousands of U.S. banks through a stress test that aims to predict how institutions’ loan portfolios will weather a tough economy. In a report released today, it says 51.8 percent of Florida-based banks would be undercapitalized, which it defines as a Tier 1 capital ratio of less than 8 percent.
(read more...)

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June 8, 2011

INVICTUS GROUP PREDICTS POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT CAPITAL SHORTFALL
FOR OVER 400 BANKS

In a press release issued this morning:

• Invictus Group predicts over 400 US Banks with more than $150 billion of deposits
  could show significant capital shortfall within 12 months
• 1,000 additional institutions at risk of not generating adequate investment returns,
  suggesting increased consolidation on horizon
• Forecasts come from new Stress Testing developed by Invictus already in use by
  State Regulators and now commercially available
  (read more...)

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Bad Commercial Loans Weigh on Banks

Kamal Mustafa provides insight into the commercial and residential real estate loan troubles
wreaking havoc on regional and community banks.
(read more...)

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Hidden Opportunities in Stress Tests? Or More Pain

Kamal Mustafa is featured on Globest.com as a bank stress test expert.
(read more...)

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Regulators Issuing Orders on Record Pace;
Enforcement Actions Becoming ‘Ordinary’

September 6, 2010

Expect your next safety and soundness exam to be tough — and don’t be surprised if you end up with an enforcement order. Regulators are continuing to issue enforcement actions against banks at a record breaking rate, with the FDIC already on pace to surpass last year’s shocking totals.
(read more...)

Bridging the D&O Data Divide: Can Stress Testing, Risk Management Data Help with Insurance Premiums?

December 20, 2010

Ever since the recession hit, D&O insurance premiums have gone up and insurers’ tolerance for risk has gone down. For troubled banks or banks perceived to be in trouble, finding affordable premiums or even just getting coverage can be tough. If you bring stress test results to an insurer…
(read more...)

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First-Quarter Earnings to Reflect Struggle for Customers

Monday, April 11, 2011
By Matthew Monks

Banks' old problems kept easing in the first quarter. Their new problems didn't.

Banks — like the economy — are stuck in a holding pattern until companies begin hiring in droves and home prices stabilize, experts say. But things remain spotty when it comes to finding borrowers and clients to charge for loans and services. That's the new problem that isn't going away.

“The forward-looking stuff has been pretty moribund,” said Thomas Mitchell, an analyst with Miller Tabak & Co. LLC who covers midsize banks. “You have companies (banks) that, except for improvement in their credit metrics, are not showing any underlying growth at all. And I think that is likely to continue to be the case.”
(read more...)

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Bank Stress Test

Stress test results are in, and not every bank received passing grades. Ten banks need more money.
So what's next for America's banks?
Kamal Mustafa is featured on Money For Breakfast.
(watch the video...)

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