More than a quarter of Florida banks are undercapitalized, but New York research firm Invictus Group says that number could soar to more than 50 percent.

Invictus ran thousands of U.S. banks through a stress test that aims to predict how institutions’ loan portfolios will weather a tough economy. In a report released today, it says 51.8 percent of Florida-based banks would be undercapitalized, which it defines as a Tier 1 capital ratio of less than 8 percent.

Only Puerto Rico (57.1 percent) and Arizona (52.8 percent) had higher shares of potentially undercapitalized banks.

Invictus CEO Kamal Mustafa sees a rough road for undercapitalized banks. Regulators are cracking down on lending by those banks, which means they’ll be unlikely to make new loans as existing borrowers pay off their loans.

As a result, Mustafa said, “They’re going to have a tremendous decline in earnings.”